Proper scoring
Brier rewards honest probabilities instead of confident guesses.
Scoring math with resistance to gaming
Brier score and holdout partitions compiled to WASM. Adversarial miners lose rank — residual risk remains; we do not claim ungameable.
Method
Beyond hello-world WASM.
Calibration
Reliability bins expose systematic over- and under-confidence.
Deterministic WASM
gradelock.wasm built in-repo. Official Telegraph ABI still PARTIAL — community checker target.
Anti-game suite
Named attacks with measured rank drops in CI smoke.
Adversarial suite
Inflation, hedge spam, label echo, and volume attacks checked in.
Pass bar
Honest mean Brier ≈ 0.055 on synthetic-ci holdout (2026-08-29).
Evidence
Adversarial miners lose rank.
| Attack | Rank drop | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Confidence inflation | -3 | Worse than honest on CI holdout |
| Hedge spam | -1 | Worse than honest on CI holdout |
| Label echo | -4 | Worse than honest on CI holdout |
| Volume flood | -2 | Worse than honest on CI holdout |
Source: protocol smoke · synthetic-ci only · RAID import still open.